November 30, 2011 at 9:42 pm
“Newt”-onian physics: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.”
It made perfect sense for Sir Isaac Newton. Now we are about to see if Newt Gingrich can keep up his motion in the rough and tumble of Republican presidential politics.
Gingrich , the former House Speaker, is calling himself “the conservative alternative” to Mitt Romney.
Others–Bachmann, Perry, Cain–have climbed the dizzying heights only to fall back in the non-stop race that marks the fight for the GOP nomination. Is Iowa now there for Gingrich to grab? What about New Hampshire, once seen as safe ground for Romney? It all depends on the poll you read on any given day. Right now many of those polls are pointing to Gingrich as the man with all the momentum and that includes our Sunshine State. But some experts say–not so fast!
Florida is the pivotal, behemoth battleground state where primary voters will go to the polls January 31st. Dr. Sean Foreman is associate professor of political science at Barry University in Miami Shores. He said of Gingrich, “I don’t see him winning Florida. I don’t see his organization here. Romney is going to have an advantage at the turn of the year when it comes to advertising because he has more money in the bank.”
Door to door greetings and town hall settings may work well in Iowa and New Hampshire but the winning formula in sprawling, diverse Florida always demands a huge media blitz in statewide television markets. That cost money…lots and lots of it. Gingrich, of course, is attracting more support and money with each passing day. But mapping out victory doesn’t happen overnight and every candidate needs an army of volunteer workers to go with the campaign war chest . Foreman also gives that advantage–for now anyway–to Romney’s team in Florida. He says, for example, that they are focused on crucial absentee voters, who will make their choices long before primary day.
The bottom line according to Foreman, a veteran observer of the state’s political scene, is that Gingrich has a lot of catching up to do in the Sunshine State. ”Romney is well organized (in Florida),” Foreman noted.
That being said, two months is an eternity in modern politics. Just ask anyone in the Republican race, including Gingrich who was nothing more than a political afterthought last summer. Times and attitudes can change–fast. Stay tuned.